"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

• E131: Abundance Agenda, The New Right, and 2008 Retrospective w/ Noah Smith

  Today on Upstream, Erik Torenberg and Noah Smith discuss the Abundance Agenda by Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson, the impact of the 2008 recession, Obama's presidency, and shifts in political ideology, focusing on the 'New Right' and its cultural and economic implications, while also touching upon the economic recovery strategies post-2008. This episode originally aired on Econ102 (April 1, 2025) — 📰Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess  🙏Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse    — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS:  🎙️Econ102 with Noah Smith Keeping econ entertaining - Noahpinion author Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg break down business news and politics every week. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1696419056  Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6q7Gn5lP8TTtBPuV1NJSGs Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@ECON102Podcast — SPONSORS: ☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at https://oracle.com/turpentine  🎯Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit https://adquick.com/ to start reaching your customers in the real world. 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/  and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ Abundance (by Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson): https://www.amazon.com/Abundance-Progress-Takes-Ezra-Klein/dp/1668023482  The Clash of Civilizations (by Samuel Huntington): https://www.amazon.com/Clash-Civilizations-Remaking-World-Order/dp/1451628978  Revolt of the Public (by Martin Gurri): https://www.amazon.com/Revolt-Public-Crisis-Authority-Millennium/dp/1732265143  Understanding America's New Right: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/understanding-americas-new-right  American Factory: https://www.netflix.com/title/81090071  — X / TWITTER: @Noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: The "abundance agenda" is gaining unexpected traction among Democrats who see it as a unifying message rather than class warfare. Noah views the abundance agenda as appealing because it promises prosperity for all Americans regardless of political beliefs. Noah considers Obama underrated, highlighting his stimulus package, Dodd-Frank regulations, Iraq War withdrawal, and Obamacare. Obama's immigration policy focused on deporting criminal elements, reducing the illegal immigrant population by about a million. The 2008 financial crisis was a "liquidity preference shock" where fear caused everyone to hold cash rather than spend. During demand-side crises, the government acts as "spender of last resort" to jumpstart economic activity. Infrastructure spending during the Obama era wasn't efficient, creating problems for future building initiatives. Post-2008 policies increased US debt from 60% to 100% of GDP during Obama's administration. Higher inflation under Biden has actually decreased the debt-to-GDP ratio despite increased spending. The "new right" ideology focuses on "Western civilization" - not racial nationalism but reverence for traditional European/Christian heritage. New right politicians like JD Vance care more about "meme wars" and online status than practical policy solutions. Social media has empowered a small percentage of politically active "shouting class" with outsized influence.

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• E130: Elon Musk’s Network Effects and Checking in on Chinese AI w/ Byrne Hobart

  This week on Upstream, we're releasing an episode of The Riff (originally aired on March 25, 2025) where Erik Torenberg and Byrne Hobart discuss Don Jr.'s leveraging of the Trump brand, Dustin Moskovitz's departure to address AI risks, economic impacts of various policies, and geopolitical considerations with a focus on AI and China's tech ambitions. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess  🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse    — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS:  🎙️ Investor and writer of the popular newsletter The Diff, Byrne Hobart, and co-host Erik Torenberg discuss today’s major inflection points in technology, business, and markets – and help listeners build a diversified portfolio of trends and ideas for the future.  Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-riff-with-byrne-hobart-and-erik-torenberg/id1716646486  Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6rANlV54GCARLgMOtpkzKt  YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRiffPodcast — SPONSORS: ☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at https://oracle.com/turpentine  🎯 Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit https://adquick.com/ to start reaching your customers in the real world. 🕵️‍♂️ Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/  and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co  — X / TWITTER: @byrnehobart  @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: Political Brand Leveraging & Business: Byrne discussed how Donald Trump Jr. is leveraging the Trump brand, noting this follows a pattern where relatives of politicians often engage in business dealings that trade on political connections. High-Stakes Career Choices: They analyzed Dustin Moskovitz's departure from Asana, suggesting it may be motivated by existential AI concerns. Existential Risk Perspectives: Byrne distinguished between "hot apocalypse" scenarios (like nuclear war) and "cold apocalypse" scenarios where societal function gradually deteriorates. Twitter/X and Elon Musk: They discussed how Musk has managed to technically restore Twitter's valuation through financial engineering and leveraging connections between his companies. Economic Policy and Tariffs: Extensive discussion of Trump's tariff strategy as a negotiation tactic rather than a permanent policy. Recession Concerns: Byrne explained how markets anticipate economic changes before they appear in employment data, creating apparent disconnects between Wall Street and Main Street indicators.

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  1:02:20
• E129: Dark Triad, Romantic Partner Selection, and Dating Advice w/ Rob Henderson

  Today on Upstream, Erik Torenberg interviews author Rob Henderson about modern romance, discussing evolutionary psychology, the attraction to dark triad men, dating apps, and practical advice for men seeking romantic partners. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess  🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse  — SPONSORS: ☁️Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at https://oracle.com/turpentine  🎯 Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit https://adquick.com/ to start reaching your customers in the real world. 🕵️‍♂️ Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/  and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Why (Some) Women are Attracted to Violent Men: https://www.robkhenderson.com/p/why-some-women-are-attracted-to-violent   How to Choose a Romantic Partner: https://www.robkhenderson.com/p/how-to-choose-a-romantic-partner  Richard Wrangham’s The Goodness Paradox: https://www.amazon.com/Goodness-Paradox-Relationship-Violence-Evolution/dp/1101870907  Frans de Waal’s writings: https://www.goodreads.com/author/list/112082.Frans_de_Waal  David Gilmore’s Manhood in the Making: https://www.amazon.com/Manhood-Making-Cultural-Concepts-Masculinity/dp/0300050763  Neil Strauss’ The Game (Pickup Artists): https://www.amazon.com/Game-Penetrating-Secret-Society-Artists/dp/0060554738  The Social Dimension of Sex: https://www.amazon.com/Social-Dimension-Sex-Roy-Baumeister/dp/0205324428 — X / TWITTER: @robkhenderson @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: Evolutionary theory suggests some women may be drawn to men with dark triad personality traits (narcissism, psychopathy, Machiavellianism) as a protective mechanism. Men who achieve high status among other men tend to also attract women. Pickup artist culture evolved from self-improvement advice to more pessimistic "black pill" incel communities. Basic improvements for men seeking relationships include grooming, fitness, career advancement, and creating a comfortable living space. Research shows the strongest correlations between couples are in education, intelligence, political beliefs, and religion. The effectiveness of showing vulnerability depends on how you're already perceived socially. There's a significant lack of relationship guidance for young people compared to abundant career advice. Dating preferences show more variety than expected, suggesting more opportunities than pessimistic views indicate.

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  1:05:20
• E128: US-Europe Relations, How Japan Can Strengthen The Yen, and Predicting AI’s Growth Effects w/ Noah Smith

  Today on Upstream, Erik Torenberg and Noah Smith analyze America's European withdrawal, China's selective globalization strategy, and tempers expectations about AI's economic impact while considering GDP measurement challenges. — 📰Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess  🙏Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse    — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS:  🎙️Moment of Zen Every week, Erik Torenbergand frequent special guests discuss what's happening in technology, business, politics, and beyond. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/15KYOzvDzAQvqX0z0SpHEJ  Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/moment-of-zen/id1661672738 — SPONSORS: ☁️Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at https://oracle.com/turpentine  🎯Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit https://adquick.com/ to start reaching your customers in the real world. 🕵️‍♂️Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/  and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: Weeb Economy: https://bookplus.nikkei.com/atcl/catalog/25/03/02/01880/ I have written a book!: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/i-have-written-a-book Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/  — X / TWITTER: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: U.S.-Europe Relations & Geopolitical Shifts: Examines the U.S. shift away from supporting Europe, debating whether it was exploited or harming its own interests, with Trump’s strength-focused foreign policy potentially pivoting toward Russia, risking economic and intelligence ties with Europe. China's Economic Strategy & Globalization: The Belt and Road Initiative has largely failed, with poorly executed projects and unsustainable debt burdens for recipient countries. India's Industrialization & Economic Future: India needs a major shift in labor dynamics, particularly increasing women's participation in factory work. AI, Economic Growth & the O-Ring Theory: AI’s impact on economic growth is debated—some expect 10% growth, while Noah sees 5% as more realistic. Japan’s Economy & Currency Strength: Japan should push for a new Plaza Accord with the U.S. to strengthen the yen. AI’s Impact on Jobs & Productivity: AI is unlikely to eliminate all jobs but will require major adjustments in industries and legal structures.

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• E127: The Tech Right and How The Left Can Fix Itself w/ Jon Askonas

  Today on Upstream, we’re airing Erik Torenberg’s conversation with Jon Askonas. They explore the emerging coalition between MAGA supporters and Silicon Valley tech leaders, examines the underlying political realignment, the tensions and fault lines within this coalition, and the potential future conflicts surrounding issues like immigration and transhumanism. This episode originally aired on Moment Zen (February 22, 2025) — 📰Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess  🙏Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse    — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS:  🎙️Moment of Zen Every week, Erik Torenbergand frequent special guests discuss what's happening in technology, business, politics, and beyond. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/15KYOzvDzAQvqX0z0SpHEJ  Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/moment-of-zen/id1661672738 — SPONSORS: ☁️Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at https://oracle.com/turpentine  🎯Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit https://adquick.com/ to start reaching your customers in the real world. 🕵️‍♂️Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/  and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Ezra Klein on Supply-side Progressivism, Polarization, and What Silicon Valley Misses About Politics: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l1vBO8SYvto  The Future of Crypto with Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CQdaQr3EW8g  Tech for Trump:  https://www.city-journal.org/article/tech-for-trump The New Control Society: https://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/the-new-control-society — X / TWITTER: @JonAskonas @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: Silicon Valley has experienced a significant shift away from Democrats, visually demonstrated by tech CEOs like Nadella, Pichai, Bezos, and Zuckerberg attending Trump's inauguration. The tech elite was historically one of the most entrenched parts of the Democratic coalition from the Clinton era through the Obama administration. COVID enabled tech to be publicly anti-left due to perceived governance incompetence, with figures like Mike Solana leading criticism of San Francisco's policies. Brian Armstrong's "no politics at Coinbase" stance marked a controversial turning point, though it wasn't explicitly right-wing. The new right coalition consists of three pillars: the Tech Right (elite talent and donors), MAGA (America First policies), and MAHA (Make America Healthy Again). What unites this coalition is an "existential fight with the Cathedral" - targeting establishment institutions rather than protecting existing systems. Immigration represents a major fault line, with tech generally being pro-immigration while the MAGA base is restrictionist. Transhumanism and biotechnology create tension between tech enthusiasm for innovation versus MAGA/MAHA skepticism about "messing with natural biology." Democrats are struggling with post-election analysis, focusing on messaging rather than substance. Trump's approach differs from previous Republicans by focusing on destroying rather than reforming institutions. Many of Trump's most controversial positions were actually Democratic positions in the 1990s.

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  48:10

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