"This Won't Last" with Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg

This is the second episode of This Won’t Last. The show is a monthly conversation between Logan Bartlett of Redpoint, Keith Rabois at Khosla Ventures, Kevin Ryan at Alleycorp, and Zach Weinberg, biotech founder (Curie.Bio) and investor. This episode covers Khosla’s initial investment into OpenAI, runaway AI CapEx, long-term AI leaderboards, and regulatory implications in AI. This Won't Last is part of the Turpentine podcast network. -- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse. -- Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast https://www.youtube.com/@theloganbartlettshow -- 𝕏 https://x.com/thiswontlast https://x.com/rabois https://x.com/loganbartlett https://x.com/kevinryan https://x.com/zachweinberg https://x.com/Redpoint https://x.com/turpentinemedia -- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. Founders Fund's Delian Asparouhov and researcher Nadia Asparouhova kick off the series with an unfiltered conversation about their relationship evolution. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod -- Links: OpenAI and Anthropic revenue data: https://www.tanayj.com/p/openai-and-anthropic-revenue-breakdown Anthropic CEO on future $10B model: https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/dario-amodei Hardware costs in Scaling AI: https://fortune.com/2024/04/04/ai-training-costs-how-much-is-too-much-openai-gpt-anthropic-microsoft/ Comparing Quality/Speed/Price of AI models: https://artificialanalysis.ai/ CA banning election deep fakes on social media: https://techcrunch.com/2024/09/17/californias-5-new-ai-laws-crack-down-on-election-deepfakes-and-actor-clones/ Life expectancy relative to spending in Healthcare: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/life-expectancy-vs-health-expenditure -- Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:39) Show origins (02:39) OpenAI funding, Khosla’s initial investment (06:40) Talent shortage and power law engineers (11:47) Engineer tenure at startups (15:12) OpenAI metrics (19:26) AI CapEx (25:01) Zach’s Pixel vs iPhone (25:36) OpenAI vs Perplexity and Google (32:03) Safety concerns in AI (40:38) Misinformation regulation (46:38) Regulations in healthcare (48:44) Gambling regulations (58:49) Hidden downsides of regulations (01:03:59) Individual responsibilities (01:13:33) Closing

This is the debut episode of This Won’t Last, a monthly conversation between Logan Bartlett of Redpoint, Keith Rabois at Khosla Ventures, Kevin Ryan at Alleycorp, and Zach Weinberg, biotech founder (Curie.Bio) and investor. This episode covers Founder Mode, the state of VC fundraising, the potential for an unrealized gains tax, and Russia’s influence in Telegram. This Won't Last is part of the Turpentine podcast network. -- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse. -- 🎥 Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast https://www.youtube.com/@theloganbartlettshow -- 𝕏 https://x.com/thiswontlast https://x.com/rabois https://x.com/loganbartlett https://x.com/kevinryan https://x.com/zachweinberg https://x.com/Redpoint https://x.com/turpentinemedia -- Links: Keith’s Recs: High Output Management by Andy Grove Keith Rabois’ lecture notes from 2013: "How to Operate" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6fQHLK1aIBs Tesla versus Edison: The Last Days of Night: A Novel by Graham Moore Disruptive Innovation by Clayton M. Christensen The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing by Michael J. Mauboussin Kevin’s Recs:  Dark Wire by Joseph Cox Logan’s Recs: On railroads: Engines That Move Markets by Alistair Nairn Wired: “The Kremlin has entered your chat” -- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. Founders Fund's Delian Asparouhov and researcher Nadia Asparouhova kick off the series with an unfiltered conversation about their relationship evolution. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod -- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (02:39) Kevin comes back from Burning Man (04:20) Paul Graham’s Founder Mode  (05:45) Founder mode intuitive for Keith, Pierre Lamond anecdote (07:00) Keith’s response to kernel of Founder Mode, Andy Grove High Output Management (08:28) What’s unique about Founder Mode? (09:13) Manager vs. Founder (12:57) Founder moral authority (15:00) Investing in founder driven CEOs (18:47) State of venture markets (21:15) Driverless car future (26:25) Revenue quality in AI valuations (33:00) New technology disruptive or helpful for incumbents (35:40) AI in Biotech (38:44) AI impacting fund AUM (42:30) AI as the transistor (43:25) Hurdle to return AI CapEx (44:30) Unrealized Capital Gains Tax (47:27) Sweden’s tax vs Norway and corporation tax rates (54:50) Medicare & Social Security, beneficial tax policies (1:00:45) Misleading life expectancy stats (1:02:15) Lina Khan, Antitrust effect on tech industry (1:10:20) Perplexity shocking Google (1:12:30) Pavel Durov and Russia’s Influence in Telegram (1:16:45) Not using TikTok and Telegram, risk in capital in Chinese companies (1:22:25) Closing -- Founders/CEOs/Execs of top companies can apply to join the Turpentine Network.